Following the Awards Season 2020/2021: Final Oscar Nomination Predictions
After 14 months of waiting, another announcement of Academy Award nominations is finally on the horizon, bringing one of the most unique and challenging award seasons to a close. With the end in sight, it finally is time to give one last breakdown of each category heading into the nomination announcement and give final predictions for each category.
Best Animated Short Film
With one of the strongest lineups for Best Animated Short film in recent memory, it feels harder than ever to predict which 5 of the eligible 10 Animated Short Films from the shortlist will find a nomination this year. Burrow, If Anything Happens I Love You, and Out clearly have the biggest pushes behind them from Disney and Netflix, respectfully making them easy choices to predict to find their ways into the final lineup, but from there, things get tricky. The raw brutality found within Traces feels somewhat like the brutality found within the nominated Prologue from 2015. The branch normally rewards at least one more mature entry within the lineup with a nomination, so that seems like a decent choice with the powerful Kapaemahu rounding out the predicted lineup. Kapaemahu has been widely available throughout much of the awards season, and the haunting story it tells has seemingly spoken deeply to everyone who has seen it up to this point, gaining a decent amount of buzz and attention.
Predicted Lineup: Burrow, If Anything Happens I Love You, Kapaemahu, Out, & Traces
Best Live Action Short Film
For the Best Live Action Short Film category, The Human Voice has to be considered a clear frontrunner and near-lock for a nomination. With the talents of Pedro Almodóvar and Tilda Swinton attached, it would be shocking for the short to miss. Feeling Through feels rather predictable as another nomination, with the category celebrating expressions of disability before with projects such as 2015's Stutterer and 2017's The Silent Child. The Present, The Van, and White Eye all also feel rather in line with what the category normally nominates but, as with all the shorts categories, it is quite hard to fully predict what might happen.
Predicted Lineup: Feeling Through, The Human Voice, The Present, The Van, & White Eye
Best Documentary Short Film
Historically one of the hardest categories to predict, the Best Documentary Short Film category has thrown surprises out nearly every year, and it is easy to expect 2021 to be no different. While one might be tempted to immediately slot in the short films attached to a major streaming service, history has proven countless times that it is far from a prerequisite to a nomination with Netflix getting as many misses as they do nominations. Both A Love Song for Latasha and The Speed Cubers come from Netflix, but only A Love Song for Latasha makes it into the predicted lineup, with The Speed Cubers clearly being the lesser of the two when it comes to depth and power. Hunger Ward not only is an incredibly important short film but also has been gaining quite a bit of attention, so a nomination for that film would come as no surprise. Both Colette and Do Not Split feel incredibly in line with the category’s fondness for emotional capturing of the modern human experience found on a global level, making them easy predictions. A Concerto is a Conversation rounds out the predictions not just for the unique and impactful perspective found within the film but also for the attention it has gained, as well as having Ava DuVernay's name attached as a producer.
Predicted Lineup: Colette, A Concerto is a Conversation, Do Not Split, Hunger Ward, A Love Song for Latasha
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Cross-referencing the Oscar shortlist for the category and 2021 Make-Up Artists and Hair Stylists Guild nominations, an overlap can be found in Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn), Hillbilly Elegy, Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, and Pinocchio. This category has historically been very open to smaller foreign contenders, even if they lack support elsewhere, so Pinocchio feels like a safe bet alongside the rest of the films which appeared in both lineups – other than Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey. Not only has the film had a rather lackluster awards season when it comes to all-around support, but the Academy rarely goes for holiday features, making it the easy option to drop from this list. As for contenders on the shortlist but not on the Make-Up Artists and Hair Stylists Guild nominations list, The Little Things and One Night in Miami could find a nomination here if they over-perform overall with nomination totals, but that doesn't feel likely enough to predict.
Predicted Lineup: Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn), Hillbilly Elegy, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, & Pinocchio
Best Costume Design
While no shortlist for the category of Best Costume Design was released, it can be seen from the 2021 Costume Designers Guild nominations that there is industry support for the likes of Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey, Mulan, Pinocchio, Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn), Da 5 Bloods, Promising Young Woman, The Prom, Emma., Judas and the Black Messiah, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, and One Night in Miami as legitimate contenders. While this category isn't afraid to throw curveballs, it clearly has a soft spot for period pieces with Emma. filling the role nicely this year as the only true period piece of its kind on the list. Similarly, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, Mulan, and Judas and the Black Messiah both also have their own worth as period pieces, and it is reasonable to expect them to show up also. Finally, even if the costumes in Mank seem rather basic, the category traditionally has at least one nominee with a more contemporary sense of style such as The Irishman or Darkest Hour, so it wouldn't be a shock at all to see them reward the film here.
Predicted Lineup: Emma., Judas and the Black Messiah, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, & Mulan
Best Production Design
Again, with no shortlist to pull from, the best tool to get an insight on the industry thoughts on the Best Production Design category comes from the guilds. The 2021 Art Directors Guild gave nominations to Mank, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, Mulan, News of the World, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Tenet, The Midnight Sky, Da 5 Bloods, I'm Thinking of Ending Things, Promising Young Woman, and The Prom. Best Picture contenders Mank, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, and News of the World feel relatively safe for nominations. The Trial of the Chicago 7 also feels probable to get in, despite not necessarily having the most memorable or unique production design. The last spot becomes a bit tricky to fill, where this could be the place where Da 5 Bloods, Tenet, or I'm Thinking of Ending Things finds a surprise nomination; ultimately, the prediction goes to Mulan. It has been seen in the past with nominations such as The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey in 2012 and Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them in 2016 that the category isn't afraid to go for production designs with more fantastical elements and the film's recreation of China does contain some pretty noticeable effort in the terms of production design.
Predicted Lineup: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Mulan, News of the World, & The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Visual Effects
Back with a shortlist to cross-reference with, films that both made the Oscar shortlist and found nominations in the 2021 Visual Effects Society Awards include Bloodshot, Mank, The Midnight Sky, Mulan, The One and Only Ivan, Soul, Tenet, and Welcome to Chechnya. In an incredibly strange lineup this year, it seems like The Midnight Sky, Mulan, Tenet, and The One and Only Ivan would make the most sense for nominations with their clear uses of CGI, but the category quickly fills up around them. It is not unheard of for the category to go with more subtle uses of visual effects, and Mank has had quite an impressive run showcasing just how many visual effects went into making the final product. Soul is another unique choice that could possibly be nominated, but the animated films that get nominated in this category tend to be either stop-motion or truly remarkable, such as The Lion King last year. Ultimately, Soul is likely to miss out, which lines the predictions up nearly perfectly with the BAFTA’s, other than Mank replacing Greyhound which didn’t make the Oscar shortlist, but this is yet another category where some surprises wouldn't actually be that shocking.
Predicted Lineup: Mank, The Midnight Sky, Mulan, The One and Only Ivan, & Tenet
Best Original Song
Unlike most years where one or two songs seem like the clear choice to lead the pack in the Best Original Song category, this year is rather open. “Io Sì (Seen)” from The Life Ahead has to be considered for a nomination after not just winning the Golden Globe for the category but also having category legend Diane Warren attached to the song. However, the film's general lack of support, not even being eligible for Best International Feature, has to put some doubt on its chances. Looking back at the Golden Globes, “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah, “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7, and “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami also seem like safe bets for nominations, with the last spot being open for another song from the shortlist to step up. Although it isn't impossible that something like “Free” from The One and Only Ivan or “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy scores this 5th slot, the quirky “Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm is most likely to earn the nod. Borat has had a fantastic awards season over-performing in multiple places, and the category isn't afraid to go with some more bizarre and fun choices.
Predicted Lineup: “Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, “Fight For You” from Judas and the Black Messiah, “Io Si (Seen)” from The Life Ahead, “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami, & “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Original Score
Between the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA awards a pattern has started to form in the Best Original Score category. Mank, News of the World, and Soul all seem locked in for nominations, leaving only 2 spots open for debate. The 3 films left in discussion mainly seem to be The Midnight Sky, Minari, and Tenet. Alexandre Desplat has been graced with not just 11 nominations in the category but also 2 wins also having shown up as a nominee the past 3 years in a row, so that feels like enough to slide The Midnight Sky into a slot. Between Minari and Tenet, it simply comes down to name value. Whereas Emile Mosseri's score for Minari is impressive, the Academy has already proved to be fans of Ludwig Göransson, giving him the win for Black Panther, so it feels like the safer bet to go with Tenet over Minari at this point.
Predicted Lineup: Mank, The Midnight Sky, News of the World, Soul, & Tenet
Best Sound
Taking the 2021 Cinema Audio Society Nominations into account, there is clear industry support for Greyhound, Mank, News of the World, Sound of Metal, and The Trial of the Chicago 7. While Mank, News of the World, Sound of Metal, and The Trial of the Chicago 7 feel like safe bets, Greyhound has already struggled to get support from the Academy by completely missing the shortlist for the Best Visual Effects category and although the film feels very Academy friendly, with the merging of Sound Editing and Sound Mixing categories resulting in only 5 open slots for films to be rewarded for their achievements in sound, it just doesn't feel like Greyhound will have enough support to score a nomination. Instead, Tenet feels like a completely possible nomination in this category. Christopher Nolan has found success in this category before with Inception, Interstellar and Dunkirk all getting nominated for both Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Editing – Inception and Dunkirk even going on to win both awards. A large part of the conversation surrounding Tenet also involved its sound mixing and, while this conversation wasn't necessarily positive, it still made it a relevant factor. Hence, the film does pop up when thinking about the most memorable sound mixing of 2020.
Predicted Lineup: Mank, News of the World, Sound of Metal, Tenet, & The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Film Editing
With the American Cinema Editors having their Eddie award nominations releasing after the writing of this article, there is but a peek inside what the industry is thinking this time round. Between Critics Choice and BAFTA, The Trial of the Chicago 7, The Father, Sound of Metal, and Nomadland appeared in both lists with Promising Young Woman being BAFTA exclusive, and Mank and Tenet being exclusive to the Critic Choice Awards. Ultimately, this category depends greatly on which films that are on the verge of having a surprisingly good Oscar nomination actually achieve that. The Father, Promising Young Woman, and Sound of Metal all are relevant in the conversation but feel far less safe than The Trial of the Chicago 7, Nomadland, or Mank. Sound of Metal seems to have the edge with the support in the Best Sound category leaving only one spot open. Ultimately, The Father scoring both the Critics Choice and BAFTA nominations as well as being a contender for a Best Picture nominee pushes it over the edge but it would not be a shock in the slightest to see Tenet upset it for that 5th slot.
Predicted Lineup: The Father, Mank, Nomadland, Sound of Metal, & The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Cinematography
The Best Cinematography category at the Oscars is always one of the more interesting categories when it comes to nominations. Whilst typically there is a seemingly set group of obvious possible nominations, the category isn't afraid to throw a bone at random international features giving some surprising nominations. The 2021 American Society Of Cinematographers Nominations gave love to Mank, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Nomadland, Cherry, and News of the World in their main film category but also recognised Swallow, Two of Us, and Dear Comrades! in their spotlight section. Dear Comrades! specifically feels like a possible surprise nomination considering the categories love for black-and-white features. Mank, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Nomadland, and News of the World feel safe enough but Cherry is unlikely, with the negative reaction the film has received up to this point and general lack of support elsewhere. Also competing for that 5th slot are Tenet, Minari, and The Mauritanian making this final slot incredibly hard to predict. Tenet does have Hoyte van Hoytema attached, who was nominated for Dunkirk and it seems like that is the safest bet for a possible nomination. However, its miss at the The 2021 American Society Of Cinematographers Nominations does raise some doubt towards its stature within the industry. Ultimately, Minari is one to consider, especially in light of the steady build of buzz it has been receiving. But this is clearly one of the hardest predictions to make when it comes to the below the line categories.
Predicted Lineup: Mank, Minari, News of the World, Nomadland, & The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Documentary Feature
When it comes to the documentaries with the most momentum so far this awards season, Boys State, Collective, Dick Johnson is Dead, and Welcome to Chechnya all feel like safe bets for nominations this year for Best Documentary Feature with the 5th slot being a bit more open. Considering the category’s historical bias against documentaries heavily reliant on archival footage, it feels safe to rule out Crip Camp, Time, and MLK/FBI from the shortlist, leaving All In: The Fight for Democracy, Gunda, The Mole Agent, My Octopus Teacher, Notturno, The Painter and the Thief, 76 Days, and The Truffle Hunters to compete for the 5th slot. Out of these, 76 Days is most likely to succeed thanks to its political relevance and how undeniably devastating the film feels capturing the horrors of the initial rush within a COVID-19 unit in China.
Predicted Lineup: 76 Days, Boys State, Collective, Dick Johnson is Dead, & Welcome to Chechnya
Best Animated Feature
Per usual, the Best Animated Feature category has been dominated by two films, with Soul and Wolfwalkers battling for supremacy. Onward and Over the Moon have become the comfortable #3 and #4's in the category – leaving one slot open. The Willoughbys and The Croods: A New Age have bounced in and out of the final slot but The Croods: A New Age is a safer bet. Not only did that film come out much more recently than The Willoughbys but it also released in theaters, which could earn it some brownie points with Academy members who are worried about the increased reliance on streaming. It also was nominated at the Golden Globes over The Willoughbys, but with the Netflix machine behind The Willoughbys, it at least is a race for this final slot.
Predicted Lineup: The Croods: A New Age, Onward, Over the Moon, Soul, & Wolfwalkers
Best International Feature
Outside of Another Round and Collective, this year's lineup for Best International Feature feels as unpredictable as ever. Two of Us and Dear Comrades! have gotten a good amount of momentum, which includes Two of Us gaining nominations at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice awards and Dear Comrades! getting a nomination at the BAFTA's. Dear Comrades! also feels very similar to previous nominees The White Ribbon, Ida, and Cold War with it feeling very Academy-friendly with its unique black and white style and craft. Night of the Kings, I’m No Longer Here, Quo Vadis, Aida?, La Llorona, and A Sun seem to be the other major contenders for the category leaving a frustratingly difficult last prediction to make. Night of the Kings has Neon backing it while both I’m No Longer Here and A Sun has the ever-powerful Netflix machine. La Llorona has gained a solid amount of momentum but the category typically rejects horror nominees, making it hard to feel safe about predicting. Out of these, I’m No Longer Here has the best blend of momentum and Academy-friendly content to feel safe about predicting, but once again this is a hard #5 to predict.
Predicted Lineup: Another Round, Collective, Dear Comrades!, I’m No Longer Here, & Two of Us
Best Supporting Actress
The Best Supporting Actress category has quickly become the hardest category to predict from the entire year. Glenn Close, Olivia Colman, Amanda Seyfried, Helena Zengel, Youn Yuh-jung, Maria Bakalova, Jodie Foster, and Ellen Burstyn have been battling for a nomination with not a single individual feeling like a completely safe bet. As quickly as someone like Olivia Colman seemed to be building easy momentum out of SAG and the Golden Globes, she shockingly missed the BAFTA. This confusing trajectory plagued nearly all potential nominees, with the only individual to show up at Critics Choice, Golden Globes, BAFTAs, and SAG awards being Maria Bakalova for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm. Even with the film largely over-performing in the lead up to Oscar nominations, her miss when it comes to a seemingly easy win at the Golden Globes and the performance feeling rather unfriendly to the Oscars makes it hard to predict. Despite winning the Golden Globe, Sacha Baron Cohen missed a nomination for the first Borat, so even though she has the best journey to nomination morning Bakalova feels like an easier prediction to miss the category overall. Out of the precursors previously mentioned: Yuh-Jung Youn, Olivia Colman, and Glenn Close are the only individuals to only miss 1 of the group so they feel relatively safe to predict. Amanda Seyfried missing SAG does her no favors but assuming Mank does in fact have an impressive nomination tally at the end of the day, it is entirely possible she gets swept up in the love and scores a nomination leaving only one slot open. Jodie Foster got a huge boost of attention coming out of her win in the category at the Golden Globes for The Mauritanian, but CLAPPER’s final prediction is going to go to Helena Zengel for News of the World. Zengel showed up both at the Golden Globes and SAG awards, and it is clear that the young actress is one of the biggest takeaways from the feature, which has been bouncing in and out of the Best Picture lineup.
Predicted Lineup: Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), Amanda Seyfried (Mank), Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari), & Helena Zengel (News of the World)
Best Supporting Actor
With Daniel Kaluuya, Sacha Baron Cohen, and Leslie Odom Jr. leading the pack as far as safe predictions for the Best Supporting Actor category are concerned, the final slots really come down to following one's heart or one's brain. Where Alan Kim, Bill Murray, and Paul Raci would be fantastic choices for nominees, they lack both the critical support and, in the case of Kim, the historical support to be safe to predict. The Academy simply doesn't nominate kids that often, and even if his reaction would be legendary, it probably won't happen. Jared Leto surprised with both a Golden Globe and a SAG nomination but has cooled down dramatically over the next number of nomination lists. Still, the love for The Little Things is clear with it making the shortlist for Best Original Score for example, making Leto a logical conclusion for a nomination especially with Warner Bros switching their campaigning almost exclusively to him and the film. Chadwick Boseman also can't be overlooked for his performance in Da 5 Bloods, which obviously carries plenty of passion and emotion alongside it. While the film has struggled greatly to build momentum towards many nominations, Boseman was rewarded with nominations at both the Critics Choice and SAG awards so he rounds out the category nicely.
Predicted Lineup: Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods), Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Jared Leto (The Little Things), & Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami)
Best Adapted Screenplay
With not a single film finding a nomination at the Critics Choice, BAFTA, and the 2021 Writers Guild Awards, the Best Adapted Screenplay category is yet another category that feels rather open to interpretation. Even with the Golden Globes combining both original and adapted screenplays into one Best Screenplay category, The Father and Nomadland made it in while also scoring nominations at both Critics Choice and BAFTAs making them decent predictions despite missing WGA. Going to WGA, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm has over-performed at a number of guilds and considering the original film made the lineup for Best Adapted Screenplay, it wouldn't be shocking at all for it to score a nomination here. This leaves News of the World, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, and One Night in Miami fighting it out for the final two nomination slots, both receiving WGA nominations and Critics Choice nominations. Both One Night in Miami and Ma Rainey's Black Bottom have a decent amount of momentum behind them and feel like they could get in. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom is based on an August Wilson play of the same name and a previous adaptation of his play Fences did get in back in 2016, which gives that film a bit of a boost. It also does have more momentum in the acting categories with both Best Actor and Best Actress nominations feeling very likely and when combined with the Netflix machine, it feels a bit safer to consider Ma Rainey's Black Bottom just ahead of One Night in Miami.
Predicted Lineup: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Nomadland, & One Night in Miami
Best Original Screenplay
Unlike the Best Adapted Screenplay category, Promising Young Woman and The Trial of the Chicago 7 both made the lineups for Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTAs, and WGA awards making them nearly guaranteed to receive nomination slots. Mank also scored nominations at all these voting bodies other than WGA but with the passionate narrative of rewarding David Fincher's late father who wrote the screenplay, it feels safe enough to assume to get in even without the WGA nod. This leaves Minari, Sound of Metal, Palm Springs, and Judas and the Black Messiah as the lasting major contenders but the lack of overall support and passion for Palm Springs and Judas and the Black Messiah makes it more likely to see Minari and Sound of Metal here as the final nominations for the category.
Predicted Lineup: Promising Young Woman, Mank, Minari, Sound of Metal, & The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Actress
With Viola Davis, Vanessa Kirby, Frances McDormand, and Carey Mulligan all assumed locks for the Best Actress category after receiving nominations at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and SAG awards; there seems to be only one spot really open for competition. SAG showed Amy Adams love for her role in Hillbilly Elegy but her miss at the Golden Globes where it seemed easiest for the film to find industry support cannot be downplayed. Andra Day has risen quite a bit after her shock win at the Golden Globes, where she upset nearly all the major contenders in the category which also translated into a Critics Choice nomination. Her reaction led to plenty of passion developing around her and it wouldn't be anything new to see a film that is generally disliked score a single acting nomination for an impressive lead role. The likes of Sidney Flanigan and Zendaya are bouncing around in the conversation after scoring nominations at Critics Choice, but if there is one performance to feel the most likely to translate into a nomination it would be Andra Day’s.
Predicted Lineup: Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Andra Day (The United States Vs. Billie Holiday), Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Frances McDormand (Nomadland), & Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
Best Actor
Following the same logic as the Best Actress category: Chadwick Boseman, Riz Ahmed, Anthony Hopkins, and Gary Oldman all feel like safe bets for nominations after receiving nominations at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and SAG awards. Steven Yeun is left off of this list due to missing the Golden Globes but considering he wasn't eligible and Minari was awarded with Best Foreign Language Feature, it feels like this lack of a nomination really isn’t that big of a deal and he probably is a safe bet to fill out this category, which makes this predictions list mirror that of the SAG awards. Other contenders, such as Delroy Lindo and Dev Patel, have failed to gain momentum despite giving generally likable performances – with Lindo especially carrying plenty of passion behind him. Tahar Rahim has also been gaining some momentum for his stellar role in The Mauritanian, scoring nominations both at the Golden Globes and BAFTAs, but considering how odd the lineups for BAFTAs were this year and the fact that the Golden Globes technically has 10 slots for Best Actor nominations, it is hard to predict he would upset one of the clearly other stronger contenders. Sacha Baron Cohen could be seen as a possibility coming off his win at the Golden Globes but, as mentioned in the Best Supporting Actress category, this is not the type of performance that the Academy normally goes for as seen back with the original Borat where Cohen failed to score a nomination despite also having won the Golden Globe. The final contender is Mads Mikkelsen, who found a BAFTA nomination for his performance in Another Round, and despite that film feeling nearly locked in to win the Best International Feature category, the Academy has been nothing but inconsistent when it comes to rewarding non-English performances and the general lack of support the performance has found throughout the season makes it seem unlikely.
Predicted Lineup: Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Gary Oldman (Mank), & Steven Yeun (Minari)
Best Director
Perhaps no other category holds as much potential for excitement as the Best Director category. In a year truly defined by the works of both POC and Women in the director's chair, the historically white and male category truly has the chance to diversify and reward some truly remarkable voices. Looking through the Golden Globe, BAFTA, Critics Choice and DGA nominees, a clear pattern can be found with Chloé Zhao making all 4 lists alongside her complete domination of the category so far. Lee Issac Chung was technically eligible at the Golden Globes for Minari but with the film being primarily focused on in the Best Foreign Language Feature category, missing there but showing up at the other 3 major precursors spells a probable nomination for the director. Ignoring BAFTA from here on out, who went with some very bizarre picks this year; Emerald Fennell, David Fincher, Aaron Sorkin, and Regina King found nominations at all 3 other precursors, with the note that Regina King was in the First-Time Feature Film category at DGA not the overall Theatrical Feature Film category. The same category produced nominations for Radha Blank, Fernando Frías de la Parra, Darius Marder and Florian Zeller, but it seems obvious looking at overall momentum that Marder and Zeller are the only ones here that really stand a chance. While not impossible for either Sound of Metal or The Father to exceed expectations, it feels unlikely that these two will find themselves in the category over the likes of Fennel, Fincher, Sorkin and King.
Predicted Lineup: Lee Issac Chung (Minari), David Fincher (Mank), Regina King (One Night in Miami), Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7), & Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)
Best Picture
The race for the Best Picture win has boiled down to Nomadland Vs. The Trial of the Chicago 7 – with Minari looking for an opening in the #3 slot – meaning that all three films should be seen as near-locks for nominations in the category. Outside of those films, Promising Young Woman was the only film to show up at BAFTA, Golden Globes, Critics Choice and PGA nomination lists for Best Picture. Mank showed up at Golden Globes, Critics Choice and PGA, so it seems like a somewhat obvious nomination especially considering how many other nominations the film is likely to get. Beyond this, some work must be done to assume who else will find a nomination. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom and One Night in Miami made the lineups for Critics Choice, PGA and SAG Ensemble categories, meaning that they can be seen as a safe bet for nominations leaving around 2 more slots to fill. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Judas and the Black Messiah, and Sound Of Metal are the remaining films to get nominated at PGA, with Borat Subsequent Moviefilm also getting the win for Best Picture at the Golden Globes. Despite this, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm feels unlikely to score a nomination with it lacking support from other precursors and largely feeling like an unfriendly choice for a nomination. The original Borat also missed the category, so it really would be something if the sequel managed to make it in. Judas and the Black Messiah has had a rough run of precursors for Best Picture, while The Father managed to get in both at BAFTAs and Golden Globes but missed both the PGA's and Critics Choice. If it is to be assumed that the film will get in for not just Best Actor and Best Actress but also Best Film Editing, it seems logical to assume it will get propelled into Best Picture, leaving one slot open. News of the World, at one point, seemed to be building momentum to fill this slot but with the only major nomination for Best Picture being Critics Choice, that seems unlikely at this point. Instead, Sound of Metal might fill that spot. Even though Paul Raci has become unlikely at this point for the Best Supporting Actor category, Ahmed feels like a lock for Best Actor and the film has serious chances at Best Film Editing, Best Sound, and Best Original Screenplay showing a solid level of support from the industry alongside its PGA nomination meaning that the film has a path of support unlike any of the other films fighting for this final spot.
Predicted Lineup: The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Minari, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, & The Trial of the Chicago 7
With that, CLAPPER’s final predictions for the 2021 Oscar Nominations are locked in. This has been a complex year unlike any other, leading to some categories feeling more unpredictable than usual. Even in traditional years The Academy tends to throw some surprises out there. Therefore, although it is almost guaranteed that some of these predictions will be wrong, looking at the precursors and where the narratives of each film are, this seems like the best possible list of predictions one can logically come to.
