Oscar night has come! It is now time to wade into the ever-murky waters of award show predictions to give somewhat educated guesses on what will, what could, and what should be going home with the gold. Most of these are based on pretty clear writing on the wall, though some go against the grain and come from gut feelings. Hopefully, this will help win an office pool or two, but feel free to come back Monday morning to cruelly mock all the foolish choices that were completely off-base.

BEST PICTURE

WIN: 1917

It has all the relevant precursor awards and its one-take conceit combined with a war-focused story is the perfect Oscar bait. Expect this well-liked film to take the big prize on Sunday.

COULD + SHOULD: PARASITE

Unless the Academy wants to make history and award a universally beloved South Korean dark comedy with the gold. Its main deterrent is that pesky International Film category which voters may feel is Parasite’s most viable win for the night.

BEST DIRECTOR

WIN: SAM MENDES

Even though Best Picture and Best Director theoretically mean two different things, most Oscar voters see them as one and the same, so expect the technically impressive — if somewhat emotionally cold 1917 — to take another statue here.

COULD: BONG JOON-HO

This feels unlikely but stranger things have happened. See Glenn Close’s non-existent Oscar for The Wife.

SHOULD: QUENTIN TARANTINO

The finale to Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood should not work in any capacity. The fact that it does is a testament to Tarantino’s steady hand at the helm.

BEST ACTOR

WIN: JOAQUIN PHOENIX

The Academy equates the most acting with the best acting. Typical.

COULD: NOBODY

The artist formerly known as Leaf is taking this one. Don’t bet against it.

SHOULD: ADAM DRIVER

Charlie Barber is an absurd character that Adam Driver sells with his performance alone.

BEST ACTRESS

WIN: RENEE ZELLWEGER

“I hope she had fun making it.” - Liza Minnelli

COULD AND SHOULD: CHARLIZE THERON

Judy and Bombshell’s lead performances feel like two sides of the same impression coin, but Theron inhabits Megyn Kelly in a way that is shocking.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

WIN + SHOULD: BRAD PITT

Is it a career Oscar? Possibly. Does Cliff Booth only work as a Brad Pitt surrogate? Definitely.

COULD: JOE PESCI

It is what it is. If The Irishman sneaks into any category, it’s here.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

WIN: LAURA DERN

See Brad Pitt, though Nora Fanshaw doesn’t carry the film like Pitt’s character does so she’s on slightly shakier ground.

COULD: SCARLETT JOHANSSON

It feels unfair to double-nominate, only to let her go home empty-handed so voters may reward her for her quiet, but important role in Jojo.

SHOULD: MARGOT ROBBIE

No scene in 2019 needs its actress to sell a performance like Robbie has to for the Audition Sequence in Bombshell.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

WIN: JOJO RABBIT

A drastic revision of the source material that recontextualizes the piece in a vastly different way. The emotional beats may not work for everyone, but it does for a lot.

COULD: LITTLE WOMEN

A drastic revision of the source material that recontextualizes the piece in a vastly different way. The emotional beat may not work for everyone, but it does for some.

SHOULD: THE TWO POPES

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

WIN + SHOULD: PARASITE

If the Oscars reward Bong outside of International, it’s most likely to be here.

COULD: ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD

Tarantino’s hot on his heels with a truly crackerjack story of hopeful revisionist history.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

WIN + SHOULD: KLAUS

It seems that sequel fatigue is finally settling in for voters and with wins from the Annies and BAFTAS, the little Santa movie might take the big prize.

COULD: TOY STORY 4

Or not, if people didn’t get around to watching any of the other animation options, which feels possible — if not probable.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

WIN: AMERICAN FACTORY

The first film produced by America’s former first family, the Obamas, feels like the most obvious winner.

COULD: HONEYLAND

The quiet and meditative beekeeper movie could swoop in for the gold as it’s featured in both this and the Best International Film categories.

SHOULD: ABSTAIN

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

WIN: PARASITE

It is winning. Consider this the luckiest lock to ever lock.

COULD: NOTHING

Sorry, Pain & Glory.

SHOULD: ABSTAIN

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

WIN + SHOULD: 1917

Deakins is getting a second statue for his incredible work realizing Mendes’ vision.

COULD: JOKER

There’s a lot of love for that clown movie and there’s a small chance it could be rewarded here.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

WIN: JOJO RABBIT

It feels likely after the precursors, even though the costumes seem to be pretty cut-and-dry Nazi ensembles.

COULD: LITTLE WOMEN

Period films are usually a lock for this category so this is probably the film’s best chance for a win.

SHOULD: JOKER

The year’s most memorable costumes came from this comic book adaptation, whether you liked the movie or not.

BEST FILM EDITING

WIN: FORD V FERRARI

Vroom Vroom. Like acting, the Oscars like to give it to the most editing, not necessarily the best.

COULD + SHOULD: PARASITE

The Peach sequence alone is a masterwork in editing and its peer-voted ACE award is a testament to that.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

WIN + SHOULD: BOMBSHELL

The Academy loves those Fox News wigs.

COULD: JUDY

Renee’s transformation into Judy Garland is impressive in its own right.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

WIN: JOKER

The precursors are leaning this way and the narrative thrust of a female composer for this very male-focused film will likely lead to gold.

COULD: 1917

Thomas Newman has never won an Oscar and 1917 is loved.

SHOULD: STAR WARS - RISE OF SKYWALKER

It might be considered sentimental, but it’d be nice to see John Williams walk on stage one last time.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

WIN: ROCKETMAN

Elton and Bernie winning an Oscar together feel like the perfect finale to the Rocketman saga.

COULD: BREAKTHROUGH

Dianne Warren has never won an Oscar and has been working the Academy parties. She could be the “shock” of the night.

SHOULD: FROZEN II

Love it or hate it, “Let it Go Again” is an irresistible ear-worm.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

WIN: ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD

They remade 1960s Hollywood Boulevard and the Oscars love Hollywood Boulevard.

COULD + SHOULD: PARASITE

Without sounding too cliche, the house in Parasite is as much a character as the cast who were shut-out. It seems possible that the Academy could award it again here.

Oscars - What Will, Could, and Should Win At the 92nd Academy Awards

Atlantique (Atlantics)

Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn)